Risk Assessment Use Case

The challenge

The market potential of agriculture products is influenced by conditions at the local and regional scale, but equally so by world-scale climatic factors.
Therefore, the process of determining the economic value of a yield is not merely a problem of maximising production, but must also take into account conditions at the global scale. This has also important implications on different aspects of farm management, like decisions on farm insurance, investment on protection and mitigation of destructive events, etc.

Our approach

The emergence and invasiveness of crop pests like weeds, insects, molds, etc. are highly influenced by weather conditions during growing seasons. Plants that are stressed by environmental parameters are also more vulnerable to additional biotic and abiotic stressors. As an example, increased humidity can lead to the growth of mycotoxin and aflatoxin targeting corn that has suffered droughts during its grain-filling phase. Predictive analytics on climate data can help farmers to timely prepare for such pests and mitigate their impact on crop yields.

Similarly, climate predictions at monthly or seasonal granularities can bee used by farmers for deciding on the type and level of insurance products that fit their needs.

The same analysis is beneficial for insurance companies on their estimation of the volume and spread of the various insurance policies that will be purchased. In this case, longer-term predictions (multi-year and decadal) are also useful for developing insurance products that fit the demands of the targeted farmers.

Our offerings

Using applied modelling of crop diseases and pests, forensic meteorology and price forecasting techniques we offer risk estimators and early warning analytics for:

  • crop stressors (pests, disease, deficiencies)
  • extreme weather conditions
  • crop damage assessment (frost, droughts, hail)
  • local and global agricultural commodity prices